How do we get along with China?

Considering the U.S.-China Trade War Through Robert Axelrod’s The Evolution of Cooperation

Robert Axelrod’s The Evolution of Cooperation is a classic work that analyzes the evolution of cooperation based on game theory. Applying this theory to the modern U.S.-China trade war may provide new insights into the strategies of both countries and their future outlook.

1. The U.S.-China Relationship as a Prisoner’s Dilemma

At the core of Axelrod’s theory is the “Prisoner’s Dilemma,” a situation in which both parties suffer if they pursue short-term gains, even though long-term cooperation would be the optimal strategy for both.

The U.S.-China trade war perfectly fits this model. Both countries have imposed tariffs and strengthened export regulations to harm each other, but in doing so, they have also inflicted damage on their own economies. While a cooperative relationship could be mutually beneficial, prioritizing short-term gains has led to a cycle of retaliation.

2. The Application of the “Tit-for-Tat” Strategy

Axelrod introduces the “Tit-for-Tat” strategy, which means responding to cooperation with cooperation and betrayal with betrayal. This strategy is commonly observed in international relations.

Looking at U.S.-China relations, we see a clear example of this: when the U.S. imposes high tariffs on Chinese products, China retaliates with tariffs on American agricultural goods. According to Axelrod’s theory, the “Tit-for-Tat” strategy can lead to stable relations, but if it escalates, it can freeze relations and result in losses for both sides.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has skillfully taken advantage of this situation. As the U.S.-China conflict deepens, Russia has strengthened its ties with China through energy supplies and military cooperation, increasing its strategic influence. This illustrates how “third-party intervention” in a Prisoner’s Dilemma can create new dynamics.

3. Possibilities for Long-Term Cooperation

According to Axelrod’s research, several conditions are necessary for moving beyond the “Tit-for-Tat” strategy and establishing long-term cooperation:

• A long-term relationship → The U.S.-China relationship will continue for the foreseeable future, so cooperation must be explored with a sustainable perspective.
• Observing the other party’s actions and responding appropriately → Both countries should carefully analyze the impact of economic sanctions and tariff increases to avoid excessive confrontation.
• Accumulating small acts of cooperation to build trust → Progress in areas beyond economics, such as technological cooperation and environmental policy, could serve as stepping stones to improve relations.

4. Future Prospects Suggested by Game Theory

To end the trade war, both countries must recognize that “cooperation is more beneficial.” Based on Axelrod’s theory, the following steps could help establish a more stable relationship:

• Making small concessions to build a track record of cooperation (e.g., lowering specific tariffs, setting rules for technology transfers)
• Sending signals to break the cycle of retaliation (e.g., unilaterally reducing tariffs or lifting sanctions to show willingness to cooperate)
• Improving relations through third parties (e.g., utilizing international organizations and trade agreements to promote rule-based cooperation)

Considering Putin’s strategic maneuvers, it is clear that continued U.S.-China confrontation strengthens Russia’s influence. Thus, the U.S. and China must move beyond the “Tit-for-Tat” approach and seek a cooperative path to maintain the global balance of power.

Conclusion

The U.S.-China trade war is a textbook example of the Prisoner’s Dilemma, as described by Axelrod’s game theory. However, by adopting a long-term perspective and accumulating small cooperative efforts, it is possible to mitigate conflicts.

As tensions continue, both countries must take steps beyond simple retaliation and seek sustainable cooperation. At the same time, it is crucial to consider Russia’s strategic moves and develop a strategy that maintains balance in international relations.

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From Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping: China’s History and Modern Politics

China’s political system has undergone significant transformations throughout history, centered around the rule of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) since Mao Zedong’s era. The current Xi Jinping administration, while heavily influenced by Mao’s legacy, has also introduced new approaches. This section examines China’s historical background and compares the political methods of Mao Zedong and Xi Jinping to understand the direction of modern China.

1. Mao Zedong’s Political Methods and Influence

Mao Zedong ruled China under a one-party dictatorship from the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. He implemented large-scale policies such as the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, which had severe social and economic consequences, leading to millions of deaths.

Mao’s political style was characterized by:

• Establishing a cult of personality: Mao promoted Mao Zedong Thought and positioned himself as the absolute leader.
• Prioritizing revolutionary ideology: He sought to eliminate capitalism and build a socialist state centered on peasants.
• Intensifying power struggles: Mao purged political rivals, consolidating his dictatorship through repeated internal conflicts.

These elements left a deep impact on Chinese politics, influencing future leaders in various ways.

2. Reform and Opening Under Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping’s Shift

After Mao’s death, China pivoted toward economic reforms under Deng Xiaoping’s Reform and Opening-up policy. This shift continued under Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, focusing on economic growth and international engagement.

However, since taking office in 2012, Xi Jinping has revived elements of Mao-era governance while introducing his own strong-handed political methods:

• Reviving the cult of personality: Xi has promoted Xi Jinping Thought and emphasized his central role in the CCP.
• Strengthening party control: He has tightened the CCP’s grip over politics, the economy, and the military, suppressing dissent.
• Anti-corruption campaigns: While different from Mao’s purges, Xi has used anti-corruption drives to eliminate political rivals and consolidate power.

3. Challenges and Outlook for Modern China

Xi’s governance, while influenced by Mao, faces modern challenges that did not exist in Mao’s time:

• Economic slowdown and technological competition: China’s economy has decelerated due to the Zero-COVID policy and the real estate crisis. The U.S.-China tech rivalry has intensified, pushing China toward self-sufficiency.
• Real estate market crisis: Major developers like Evergrande and Country Garden are struggling, creating economic instability.
• Rising youth unemployment: China has stopped publishing youth unemployment statistics amid record-high joblessness, raising concerns about social unrest.
• Tense international relations: Unlike Mao’s isolationist China, Xi is promoting global initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative while intensifying confrontations with the West.
• Strengthened domestic control: Digital surveillance and censorship have increased, but public dissatisfaction remains, as seen in protests against the Zero-COVID policy.

4. Conclusion: Commonalities and Differences Between Mao and Xi

Both Mao and Xi have ruled through authoritarian control and personality cults. However, their policies differ due to their respective historical contexts.

Xi Jinping, while drawing lessons from Mao, recognizes the importance of economic growth and global competition, shaping a new governance model. China’s future direction will depend on Xi’s policy flexibility and responses from both domestic society and the international community.

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The Future of Japan and China: Balancing Coexistence and Competition

Japan and China have historically maintained a deep relationship, yet their economic, political, and cultural ties have remained complex. In ancient times, Chinese culture and systems greatly influenced Japan, while in modern times, their relationship has fluctuated through war, normalization of diplomatic relations, and economic cooperation. Recently, the intensifying U.S.-China conflict and global economic instability have ushered in a new phase in their relationship. This article explores the historical ties between Japan and China and examines the future direction of their relationship, considering the ideal path forward.

1. Balancing Economic Cooperation and Competition

Historical Changes in Economic Relations

From the Tang envoy missions in ancient times to the Ming and Qing dynasties, Japan and China strengthened their ties through trade and cultural exchange. However, the relationship shifted in the 19th century with the advent of Western colonial powers, leading to conflicts such as the First Sino-Japanese War and tensions during the Cold War.

China’s Rise and Its Impact on the Japanese Economy

China has surpassed Japan in economic scale, becoming the world’s second-largest economy. For Japanese companies, the Chinese market remains indispensable, yet recent economic slowdowns and increased government regulations in China pose significant risks.
Meanwhile, Japan’s technological strength and industrial foundation remain robust, making them essential for China’s development. Collaboration in areas such as semiconductors, advanced technology, and decarbonization presents mutual benefits.

Reducing Dependence on China and Diversifying Supply Chains

The COVID-19 pandemic and U.S.-China tensions have driven Japanese companies to reinforce their “China Plus One” strategy, reducing reliance on China by shifting investments to Southeast Asia and India. However, given China’s enduring market attractiveness, a complete economic decoupling remains unlikely.

2. Political and Security Challenges

Security Issues from a Historical Perspective

Security concerns between Japan and China are deeply intertwined with historical events. The First Sino-Japanese War, the Manchurian Incident, and the Pacific War have left lasting impressions on national sentiments in both countries. Although relations improved following the 1972 normalization of diplomatic ties, recent territorial disputes and military tensions present new challenges.

Dialogue and Stability in Bilateral Relations

Amid ongoing conflicts over territorial issues and security matters, Japan and China must enhance dialogue to prevent military confrontations. Particularly, security in the East China Sea and tensions over Taiwan require careful and strategic handling from both sides.

Competition for Leadership in Asia

China is expanding its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, while Japan is promoting its Indo-Pacific strategy, leading to ongoing regional competition. However, sustainable development necessitates cooperation, particularly in infrastructure development and environmental policy.

3. The Future of Cultural and Human Exchanges

Strengthening Mutual Understanding Through Exchanges

Despite political tensions, exchanges in tourism, education, and business have persisted since ancient times. Cultural influences such as the Tang envoy missions and the spread of Zen Buddhism continue to shape interactions today. Encouraging further human exchange is key to building a future-oriented relationship.

Cooperation in the Digital Age

Advancements in digital technology are transforming communication between Japan and China. Expanding businesses through social media and e-commerce can enhance connections at the civilian level, fostering deeper mutual understanding.

4. Conclusion: The Ideal Future Relationship

Japan and China must explore ways to coexist while managing competition in economic, security, and cultural spheres. To achieve this, the following approaches are essential:

• Deepening cooperation by leveraging mutual economic interdependence
• Continuously engaging in dialogue to manage security risks
• Promoting mutual understanding through cultural and educational exchanges
• Strengthening cooperation in digital fields and environmental policies

Striking a balance between competition and cooperation will allow Japan and China to contribute to regional and global stability. Learning from history while forging a new era of relations requires sustained diplomatic and societal efforts.